The Central Bank of Armenia expects a steady economic growth in 2026, but then the pace will begin to decline. According to the March report on monetary policy, the country's GDP will increase by 7.1–4.7%, after which in 2027 the dynamics will slow down to 5.7–5.3%. At the same time, the nominal volume of the economy may grow to 12.6–12.2 trillion drams against 11.3 trillion a year earlier.
In its forecast, the regulator uses two scenarios — "Case A" and "Case B". The first assumes a tighter monetary policy and higher rates amid inflationary risks, which leads to increased demand with limited supply. The second option, on the contrary, takes into account soft conditions, lower inflation and a gradual expansion of supply with moderate demand.
Inflation in 2026 is expected at 4.4–3.3% with a target of 3% ±1 pp, and in 2027 the figure may decrease to 3.5–3.1%. Thus, despite the acceleration of the economy in the near future, the regulator anticipates a more balanced and calm dynamic in subsequent years.