The Asian Development Bank forecasts that Armenia's government debt-to-GDP ratio will reach 51.5% by the end of 2026. At the same time, analysts clarify that the calculation is fair in the absence of additional pressure on the dram exchange rate, which may arise due to external economic uncertainty.
In the future, according to the ADB's assessment, the indicator will stabilize at approximately 52% of GDP in the medium term. For comparison, according to the Ministry of Finance, at the end of 2025, the public debt was 47.3% of GDP, which remained below the established target of 50%. Thus, a gradual approach to a higher, but controlled level of debt is expected.
Previously, international rating agencies gave similar assessments of the dynamics. In particular, S&P Global Ratings expected relative debt stability at around 44% of GDP, and Fitch Ratings predicted its growth to 53.6% in subsequent years amid persistent deficits and financing needs. Armenia's total debt at the end of 2025 was estimated at approximately $14.5 billion, reflecting a continued increase in the debt burden while the economy grows.