Armenia's accession to the European Union could cost the country about 23% of GDP. This estimate was voiced by Russian Security Council Deputy Secretary Alexey Shevtsov, who emphasized that the calculations are based on conservative scenarios.
According to him, potential integration could be accompanied by serious economic consequences: a shrinking labor market, inflation rising by more than 20 percentage points, and a decline in domestic consumption. As an additional pressure factor, he cited a possible increase in energy prices, including natural gas, as well as businesses' adaptation to European standards and technical regulations.
Separately, Shevtsov noted that the introduction of EU customs rules could complicate goods transit and reduce GDP by another 7.7%. He also pointed to risks for tourism and trade due to a possible visa regime with Russia and Iran, which account for a significant share of tourist arrivals and cargo flows.