Armenia could receive a relatively higher economic effect from the development of the Trans-Caspian Transport Corridor (TTC), despite not currently being among the countries directly hosting the route. This conclusion is contained in a new World Bank report dedicated to the development of the Middle Corridor. The study includes nine states, and the analytical period covers 2023–2040. Direct physical connections of Armenia to the corridor, according to the assessment, should appear in the 2030s.
The World Bank expects that the modernization of the route will allow more than triple the volume of trade along it and halve transit times by 2040. With a combination of infrastructure investments and trade and transport reforms, shipments could quadruple, and delivery times could be reduced by two-thirds compared to 2023. To eliminate infrastructure bottlenecks, corridor countries will need at least $25 billion, mainly for railways, ports, and maritime transport, and another $30.5 billion for related infrastructure.
According to the World Bank, the development of the regional transport system and the reduction of logistics costs can provide countries directly hosting the TTC with a GDP growth of 3.3% and create 2 million jobs. However, these indicators are not a separate forecast for Armenia. The report notes that larger economies, including Turkey and Kazakhstan, may receive a greater effect in absolute terms, while small and landlocked countries, such as Armenia and Kyrgyzstan, may receive a greater relative gain.