The Asian Development Bank expects Armenia's economy to grow by 5.5% in 2026 and 5.7% in 2027. At the same time, analysts emphasize that the dynamics will largely depend on domestic demand, primarily government investments and social programs, which are becoming a key driver of expansion.
The forecast notes that the baseline scenario is accompanied by both downside risks and upside potential. Geopolitical instability in the Middle East, disruptions in logistics through the Strait of Hormuz, and rising global energy prices, which could fuel inflation and increase costs, could put pressure on growth. At the same time, improved regional relations and the promotion of peace agreements with Azerbaijan, as well as possible normalization with Turkey and the opening of borders, are seen as factors accelerating the economy.
A broad expansion is expected across sectors. Services could grow by up to 7% due to the financial sector and digital areas, construction will maintain high rates of over 17% thanks to infrastructure and housing projects, and industry and agriculture will show moderate growth amid export incentives and government programs. Domestic demand will remain a key driver, with consumption and investment continuing to support economic activity even as remittances slow.
