The Asian Development Bank forecasts that Armenia's trade deficit in goods will widen to 10.7% of GDP in 2026–2027. The reason is disruptions in global supply chains and instability in export markets, which increases pressure on the country's foreign trade balance.
At the same time, exports are showing steady growth: an increase of 11% is expected in 2026 and almost 18% in 2027 due to supplies of non-ferrous metals, industrial goods and processed products. However, imports are growing faster — about 15–16% annually, which is associated with large infrastructure and investment projects that require significant purchases of equipment and capital goods.
According to the ADB, the current account deficit may increase to 6.1% of GDP in 2026 and then decrease to 5.6% in 2027. The pressure is created by the growth of transport costs, instability in the region and more expensive imports. At the same time, statistics for the beginning of 2026 show an overall increase in foreign trade: trade increased by 9.3%, exports increased by 12.6%, and imports by 7.3%, which reflects both the recovery of activity and the continuing structural imbalance.
