On February 20, the international agency S&P Global Ratings changed its outlook on Armenia's sovereign rating from "stable" to "positive." At the same time, long-term and short-term ratings in foreign and national currency were affirmed at "BB-/B".
The agency explained that the revision of the outlook reflects expectations of a possible improvement in the regional geopolitical situation, including progress in normalizing diplomatic and trade relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan. An additional factor is the sustainable rate of economic growth, an increase in the Central Bank's international reserves, and a flexible exchange rate that can mitigate external shocks.
At the same time, analysts note the continuing, albeit weakening, geopolitical and external risks, as well as institutional constraints, a moderate level of per capita income, and the sensitivity of the balance of payments.
Support for the rating is provided by prudent macroeconomic policies, favorable growth prospects, reduced fiscal risks, and strengthened foreign exchange reserves. The document emphasizes that further progress in negotiations with Azerbaijan could reduce short-term security threats, but the sustainability of a possible peace agreement will depend on its signing and implementation.
It is separately indicated that relations with Russia remain unstable, and Armenia's dependence on trade and financial flows from the Russian Federation remains significant.
